Asia’s container congestion crisis is proving more durable than initial weather-related disruptions suggested, with regional freight rates climbing to record levels as the backlog deepens. Sea-Intelligence calculates that 8.5% of the global containership fleet is currently absorbed by delays, equivalent to roughly 3 million TEU of capacity — effectively removing a fleet larger than all but four global carriers from the market. The Danish analytics firm’s data shows the disruption has already produced the sharpest monthly decline in schedule reliability since January 2021, with Shanghai’s on-time arrival rate collapsing to just 21% in July, a level unmatched outside the pandemic in 14 years of recorded data.
Applying recovery rates observed after the pandemic and the initial Red Sea diversion crisis, Sea-Intelligence estimates it could take seven to ten months for congestion to return to the low levels seen in June 2025, or six to eight months merely to return to conditions prevailing at the end of last year. That timeline makes it increasingly likely Asian congestion will only be partially resolved before the pre-Chinese New Year cargo rush, with the holiday falling on February 6, 2027. The bottlenecks are already visible in intra-Asia pricing, with Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index climbing to record territory; the latest assessment showed the Shanghai-Laem Chabang route jumping 22% to $1,609 per 40-foot box and Shanghai-Jakarta rising 12% to $2,300 as Golden Week demand collided with restricted effective capacity.
Source: Splash247 — https://splash247.com/asian-box-port-congestion-could-take-10-months-to-unwind/
Tags: Port Congestion, Freight Rates, Sea-Intelligence, Asia
