Maritime risk intelligence firm Ambrey has warned that the threat to merchant shipping in the Black Sea has expanded westward into the waters of Romania and Bulgaria, following three drone attacks on commercial vessels within a 24-hour period on October 5 and 6, 2026. The incidents mark the first time attacks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war have struck inside the exclusive economic zones of two NATO member states rather than waters closer to Ukraine’s coastline.
The St Kitts and Nevis-flagged vessel Royad Mammadov was hit by drones in Romania’s EEZ after departing the Ukrainian river port of Izmail carrying a cargo of corn, with Romanian authorities confirming two crew deaths. A day later, the Palau-flagged general cargo ship Able and the Togo-flagged general cargo ship Alfa Watan were struck by a combination of aerial and sea drones in Bulgaria’s EEZ, with Alfa Watan sinking and Able catching fire.
Pattern of Attacks
Ambrey said its analysis of the three incidents showed the targeting profile behind the attacks has not changed even as the geographic footprint has widened. The firm said Russian forces are striking vessels linked to Ukrainian trade, now doing so inside the EEZs of two NATO member states, a shift it described as significant for shipping operating in the western Black Sea.
Ambrey stated that deliberate targeting of unrelated shipping remains unlikely, but cautioned that Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be treated as safe by default. The warning follows a September 16 decision by the Joint War Committee to expand the Black Sea Listed Area to cover the whole sea, excluding only the territorial waters of Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania and Turkey, a carve-out Ambrey had separately noted does not equate to an absence of risk.
Vessels and Casualties
Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev called the attack in his country’s waters absolutely unacceptable, though officials said it remained unclear at the time whether the drones involved originated from Russian or Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s foreign ministry blamed Russia for both the Romanian and Bulgarian incidents, while Moscow did not comment on either attack.
British maritime risk firm Vanguard identified the two Bulgarian-EEZ targets as the general cargo vessels Alfa Watan and Able, and Bulgarian authorities launched a rescue operation for crew from the damaged ships. The attacks add to a broader pattern this year in which the risk to shipping in the Black Sea has spread beyond tankers, the original focus of the campaign that began in July 2026, to include bulk carriers, general cargo ships, container ships and ro-ro vessels, according to Ambrey.
Regional Response
The European Commission said its Black Sea Security Strategy has already financed 65 projects worth 200 million euros in the region, and that the European Maritime Safety Agency had offered support to Romanian and Bulgarian authorities on maritime safety and situational awareness. Following the attacks, Romania and Bulgaria requested satellite imagery to better assess activity in their waters.
A Black Sea Maritime Security Hub, led jointly by Romania and Bulgaria and based in the ports of Constanta and Varna, is intended to improve maritime situational awareness, coordinate coastguard cooperation and counter hybrid threats including seabed sensor data analysis. Romania has also flagged Black Sea security as a priority in its draft national defence strategy, citing the need to protect energy infrastructure such as the Neptun Deep gas project from Russian threats.
Why it matters
The expansion of drone strikes into the EEZs of two NATO member states raises the stakes of the Russia-Ukraine maritime conflict beyond waters immediately adjacent to the belligerents, exposing grain, bulk and general cargo trade routes serving Romania and Bulgaria to the same hybrid-warfare risks previously confined to Ukrainian approaches. For shipowners and insurers, the shift complicates war-risk assessments across the entire western Black Sea rather than a narrower corridor, potentially raising premiums and rerouting costs for vessels serving Danube and Black Sea grain terminals. The incidents also test NATO’s response posture, as alliance members Romania and Bulgaria confront direct impacts on commercial shipping within their own economic zones for the first time in the conflict.
Source: Seatrade Maritime News
