The global “shadow fleet” of tankers moving sanctioned oil has swelled past 1,300 vessels in 2026, now accounting for roughly one-fifth of global tanker capacity, according to a catalogue maintained by Ukrainian intelligence. Around 12% of the world’s tanker fleet is now estimated to be engaged in sanctioned trade, relying on opaque ownership structures, obscure insurers and frequent AIS manipulation to evade detection.
Washington has responded most aggressively against Venezuela’s share of the fleet, declaring a naval blockade of sanctioned tankers moving in and out of the country in January 2026 and seizing the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera in the North Atlantic with British support. In the Baltic, roughly a third of oil tankers crossing the sea in late February presented insurance certificates from sanctioned Russian-linked insurers, and Moscow is reportedly preparing to re-flag around 80 tankers under the Russian flag as Western pressure on the fleet intensifies.
Source: Atlantic Council — https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/the-shadow-fleet-is-undermining-the-maritime-order-more-brazenly-than-ever/
